China PC capacity CAGR falls to 7.46% over 2025-2029_热点资讯_HOME

After a long-term expansion over 2018-2024, China's PC capacity rose by 2,935,000 tonnes/year to 3.81 million t/y by the end of 2024, and it is expected that China will face 1.51 million t/y of new PC capacities over 2025-2029, an expected compound annual growth rate of 7.46%, a decrease of 13.57 percentage points from the compound annual growth rate of the past five years.

2025-2029 China PC Newly-added Capacities (Unit: kt/y)

Region	Enterprise	Process	Capacity	On-stream Time
East China	Zhangzhou Chimei Chemical	Emulsion Polymerization	180	2025
East China	Rongsheng New Material Phase I	Bulk Polymerization	260	2027
East China	Rongsheng New Material Phase II	Emulsion Polymerization	260	Around 2028
South China	CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals	Bulk Polymerization	260	2027
East China	Sabic Fujian Petrochemical Complex	Emulsion Polymerization	290	2027
Northwest China	China Shenhua Coal to Liquid and Chemical	Emulsion Polymerization + Bulk Polymerization	260	2027-2028
Total			1,510

Source: OilChem

China's PC capacity and output growth might remain limited over 2025-2026, while downstream consumption and exports will continue to grow. Therefore, the supply and demand development of the domestic PC industry will tend to be balanced in the next two years.

Totaling 1.33 million t/y, China's PC industry will face another round of capacity expansion over 2027-2028, which might once again put certain pressure on the supply side. However, it is not ruled out that domestic PC exports will sharply increase at that time, and the actual new supply pressure might be relatively limited.

2025-2029 China PC Capacity (Unit: kt/y)

Source: OilChem

The integration level of China's PC industry chain will continue to improve in the next five years. Compared to the past, the growth gap between supply and demand will gradually narrow. With the continuous increase in domestic PC supply, the reduction of imports and the rise of exports will also become the inevitable direction for the development of China's PC industry in the future. With the continuous slowdown of capacity expansion, the Chinese PC industry is gradually entering a mature stage.

2024-2029 China PC Supply and Demand (Unit: kt)

Source: OilChem

It is expected that by 2029, domestic PC production is expected to increase to 4.38 million tonnes, while downstream consumption is expected to increase to 4.20 million tonnes, and the annual export volume might exceed the import volume for the first time.

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