China's isoprene rubber (IR) imports read 16,796.618 mt in October 2024, the highest level in a single month in history, up 81.74% MoM and 162.43% YoY. Among them, the imports of primary shape isoprene rubber stood at 895.030 mt, and those of isoprene rubber plate, sheet and tape were 15,901.588 mt.

Fatty alcohol prices showed great changes in 2024 due to tightening feedstock supply and shrinking profit. Palm kernel oil supply was tight due to aging oil palm in some main producing areas and large decrease of cacao output, which propped up fatty alcohol prices. By July 2024, the palm kernel oil inventory was 5.48 mln mt, down 170kt YoY. Meanwhile, fatty alcohol supply was also tight amid EUDR policy. Besides, fatty alcohol producers shut down their units many times on high production cost, which aggravated supply tensions. Under such circumstances, fatty alcohol prices showed continuous increase in 2024. Looking ahead, fatty alcohol market may be mixed from 2025 to 2029 with tight palm kernel oil supply due to policy and weather and soft demand. For the future medium and long-term industry development trend of fatty alcohol, OilChem will analyze the logic of price fluctuations in the past 1-5 years, conduct in-depth analysis on industry supply and demand, systematically interpret market development, and perform comprehensive investigation of future medium and long-term price drivers, in order to research and judge the development trend of the industry over 2025-2029 and assist users to formulate annual business plans.

In 2024 From 2019 to 2024, domestic nonionic surfactants entered a long-term supply-demand imbalance industry cycle, with a total of 320kt/yr new capacity added, representing a cumulative growth of 11.59%. In China, the nonionic surfactant industry development has been mature, with obvious product homogenization. With the continuous advancement of China''s petrochemical industry, China''s nonionic surfactant industry constantly has been moving towards integration and scale in recent years. Domestic demand for nonionic surfactants from daily chemical products, pesticides, pharmaceuticals, etc. slowed down, and nonionic surfactants companies focused on developing overseas markets. The 2024 export volume of surfactants increased slightly compared to 2023, easing the oversupply pressure in China. In 2024, the high cost and weak demand of nonionic surfactants in China together dragged down the profits of the nonionic surfactant market. Although the market price remained stable at a high level, the demand recovery was limited, followed by transaction difficulties. Looking ahead to 2025-2029, global economic growth is slowing down overall, industry competition is fierce, and commodity prices may gradually decline. The domestic nonionic surfactant industry will still be in a situation of oversupply in the future. Although the growth rate of production capacity has slowed down, the industry will still face many challenges and pressures. In 2024-2025 OilChem China Nonionic Surfactant Market Annual Report, OilChem will analyze the price movement logic of the past 1-5 years, deeply analyze the supply and demand relationship of the industry, systematically interpret market development changes, comprehensively research the driving forces of future medium and long-term prices, analyze the industry development trend from 2025 to 2029, and assist users in formulating annual business plans.

China PTA output reached 6.23 million tonnes in Oct, up 4.56% month on month (m-o-m) and 10.85% year on year (y-o-y).Several units were restarted in Oct, and Xinjiang Zhongtai Chemical underwent maintenance, so the overall supply inched up. Ningbo Liwan New Material and the 650,000 mt/yr unit in Ningbo Yisheng Petrochemical maintained shutdown.With regards to Nov, PTA output might inch down, amid fewer calendar days.Concerning Dec, producers will not adjust their production scheduling with the approaching of Spring Festival, and PTA output might rise, amid more calendar days. In terms of Jan, few producers will adjust their production scheduling, and the output will basically keep stable, without maintenance plans heard.

Price: The average price of propane this week was Yuan 5,247/mt, and that in the previous week was Yuan 5,261/mt, down 0.27% from last week.Supply: The total commercial volume of China domestic refineries stood at 41,900 mt, down 3.68% from last week, with an average volume of 6,000 mt per day. Shipping Schedule: The actual imported arrivals of LPG at ports were about 556,000 mt this week, which mainly arrived at ports of East China. Inventory: As of November 14, the total port inventory of LPG was about 2,858,800 mt.Operating Rate: As of November 14, the operating rate of the PDH unit was 67.25% this week, down 5.21 percentage points from the previous week. The operating rate of ethylene cracking unit was 83.59% this week, up 1.03 percentage points from last week.   

The pyrolysis C5 fraction benchmark USD price = pyrolysis C5 fraction benchmark RMB price/exchange rate (because there is no export for domestic pyrolysis C5 fraction, it is only used to compare the price difference with MOPJ) Asian naphtha market fluctuated at a high level this month, but the decline was not as large as that of upstream feedstock. The demand for downstream olefin chemical products was flagging on poor profits. The gasoline demand declined as the seasonal demand peak season ended, and the demand support for naphtha from gasoline market weakened, but propped up by the supply crunch, the naphtha market price was at a high level. The supply is predicted to be relatively tight on busy maintenance of refineries in the Middle East in winter. In addition, China's new ethylene cracking units with the capacity 1.20 billion mt/yr is estimated to put into operation in the first quarter of 2025, which might drive an increase in naphtha demand. As of Oct 30th, Japanese naphtha prices closed at $645.63/mt, down 0.42% month-o-month. 

1. CNPC Fuel Oil successfully obtained the first local license for bonded fuel oil refueling in the northern region.2. China plans to issue export quotas for bio marine fuel. 3. Hong Kong officially releases the Action Plan on Green Maritime Fuel Bunkering. 

1. PBAT mainstream prices kept stable, owing to the increasing market supply, slower consumption of inventory and rising feedstock cost.2. Average operating rate of degradable packaging bag producers was 39.80% in Oct, down by 0.98 percentage points from last month, due to its slowing demand.3. PBAT cost climbed up and prices were below the cost, so its profits became negative again this month.

International crude futures might go down next week, suppressed by soft demand and the potential bearish impact brought by Trump policies. Crude oil prices of WTI and Brent might be $66-70/bbl and $70-74/bbl, respectively.With regards to supply, Sinopec Qilu Company, Fujian Refining & Petrochemical and Sinopec-SK (Wuhan) Petrochemical will maintain maintenance next week, CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals will resume production, and the overall market supply will inch up. For demand, several resin enterprises will constantly undergo maintenance next week, market demand will not improve significantly, and market players will hold bearish sentiment, bringing limited demand for pyrolysis C9 fraction. In addition, crude futures mainly keep falling next week, cargo deals might stimulate the feedstock demand of gasoline producers, but downstream users will still hold resistance towards high-priced feedstock due to cost limitation, so the aromatics solvent market will keep adjustments.In terms of other fields, crude futures will not effectively support the fuel market, and downstream users will purchase on long-standing material demand, bringing insufficient support for pyrolysis C9 fraction prices.In summary, pyrolysis C9 fraction market might keep steady, and the wait-and-see sentiment will aggravate in the market, with the mainstream EXW price of Yuan 4,250-4,450/mt. 

State-owned producers of pyrolysis C5 fraction stabilized their prices this week, while auction prices from private enterprises declined slightly. This is mainly due to fluctuations in the oil market, a drop in international oil prices, and a relatively subdued trading atmosphere in the light components market.Pyrolysis C5 fraction production totaled 66,130 tonnes, basically flat from last week.IPM prices slid by Yuan 200/mt to Yuan 10,850-11,600/mt this week. PIP prices fell by Yuan 200/mt to Yuan 7,500-8,900/mt. DCPD prices fell to Yuan 7,500-8,000/mt, a drop of Yuan 200/mt in the bottom price. C5 raffinate prices settled at Yuan 5,100-5,850/mt, up Yuan 100/mt in the bottom price but down Yuan 50/mt in the ceiling price.On Thursday, wholesale prices of C5 petroleum resin for road marking paint were steady at Yuan 9,300-9,900/mt, and wholesale prices of high-end products were unchanged at Yuan 10,100-10,400/mt. Wholesale prices of C5 petroleum resin for adhesives were steady at Yuan 10,500-12,300/mt. Wholesale prices of decyclization C5 petroleum resin stabilized at Yuan 9,500-9,800/mt.C5 Raffinate: The market for C5 raffinate experienced narrow fluctuations. During this session, international oil prices showed a downward trend, and the average price also fell. As of Nov 13th, the Brent price was $72.28/bbl, down 4.43% from Nov 7th. In Shandong, the refined oil market also declined weakly. End-use demand was generally moderate, with cautious bulk purchasing operations by traders. Downstream users were procuring as needed and reducing inventory, resulting in a muted market trading atmosphere. Due to tight market circulation, the mixed C5 market was strong, with the average price in Shandong at Yuan 5,850/mt. In South China and Shandong, some manufacturers resumed shipments of C5 raffinate, with prices being stable to slightly strong. In Central China, prices remained stable at Yuan 5,500-5,600/mt. In East China, prices also remained stable at Yuan 5,860-5,900/mt. In Northeast China, prices ranged from Yuan 5,100-5,400/mt. Traders purchased as needed, and shipments were at an acceptable level.It is expected that pyrolysis C5 fraction prices will have a downward trend. Prices from private enterprises have declined within the week, and prices of pentadiene monomers have also softened. The decrease in the profits of C5 separation also puts pressure on pyrolysis C5 fraction prices.